2024年度（令和6年度）第１回の京大防災研 地震・火山研究グループ研究会開催をお知らせいたします．
今回は国立台湾大学の Chuang さんと地震災害研究センターの Isaias さんに発表していただきます．
研究会はハイブリッド形式で開催いたします．皆様お誘い合わせの上，是非ご参加いただきますようお願い申し上げます．

Here is information of the 1st seminar of the Earthquake and Volcano Group Research, DPRI, Kyoto Univerity in FY2024 on June 28.
This time, Dr. Ray Y. Chuang from National Taiwan University and Dr. Isaias Manuel Ramírez Bañales in EQHZ will give talks.
The seminar is held in a hybrid style.

-------------- ２０２４年６月　地震・火山研究グループ研究会 -------------
-------------- Colloquium of Earthquake and Volcano Hazard Group --------------

日　時：2024年6月28日（金）15:00 – 17:10
Date：15:00-17:10 June 28 (Friday), 2024
開催場所：京都大学宇治キャンパス総合研究実験１号棟４階 HW401 での対面と Zoom によるハイブリッド方式
Location: In-person, HW401, 4th floor, Research Bldg. No.1, Uji Campus, Kyoto University, On-line with Zoom

プログラム（Program）
15:00-16:00
Speaker 1:
Ray Y. Chuang, Department of Geography, National Taiwan University
Title:
Geodetically-constrained seismic hazard assessments for the Taiwan orogen
Abstract:
With the rapid convergence between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea plates, the island of Taiwan is subject to high seismicity and significant surface deformation. One fundamental challenge for scientific communities is how to characterize current motion of active structures and to evaluate seismic and associated hazards. In response to this problem, the Taiwan Earthquake Model has successfully established preliminary national seismic hazard assessment based on geologic and seismological data. To continuously improve the assessment, we start to incorporate geodetic data at the current phase. Taking the advantage of geodetic data for capturing both fast and slow deformation signals, we develop a framework to utilize geodetic data at different stages of an earthquake cycle. Therefore, we are able to analyze and monitor coseismic displacements and slow deformation for seismic and relevant hazards. In addition, we use different numerical models to estimate fault-slip rates by using geodetic data and re-calculate probabilities of seismic hazards for the fault source. The result shows that the overall probabilities is slightly higher than estimates from geologic fault-slip rates, but the geodetically-constrained models provide better estimates for strike-slip dominant faults.

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16:10-17:10
Speaker 2:
Isaias Manuel Ramírez Bañales, DPRI
Title:
Bayesian Response Spectra Attenuation Laws Based On Oscillatory Processes
Abstract:
This talk presents a novel method for analyzing seismic accelerograms using the evolutionary Power Spectral Density Function (EPSD). Furthermore, an empirical attenuation law is developed for reverse fault earthquakes of Cocos Plate using this new approach and the inference is done through a Bayesian approach. Since the total energy of a seismic motion is always finite, the periodogram can be seen as an unnormalized probability density function where the total energy is the corresponding normalization constant. The proposed model describes the square of the amplitude spectrum, an envelope of the square of the accelerogram and a copula that constructs a time-frequency model from the time and frequency marginals densities"